Background

The de minimis exemption currently allows imports valued at $800 or less to enter the U.S. duty-free. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has proposed significant modifications to this rule, but not its complete elimination.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if the U.S. government completely eliminates the de minimis exemption for all imports by January 1, 2026. The market will resolve NO if:

• The de minimis exemption continues to exist

• Only partial modifications or restrictions are implemented

• No changes are made to the current system

Considerations

• Current proposals focus on restricting rather than eliminating the exemption

• The CBP's Notice of Proposed Rulemaking suggests excluding certain shipments subject to Section 201, 232, or 301 tariffs from the exemption

• Legislative proposals like the "End China's De Minimis Abuse Act" aim to modify rather than eliminate the system

• Complete elimination would represent a major shift in U.S. trade policy and would likely face significant opposition from e-commerce companies and consumers

• Update 2025-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification Update:

  • The market now applies specifically to China.

  • If there is any dispute regarding this focus, the resolution may be marked as N/A.