Background
The de minimis exemption currently allows imports valued at $800 or less to enter the U.S. duty-free. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has proposed significant modifications to this rule, but not its complete elimination.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if the U.S. government completely eliminates the de minimis exemption for all imports by January 1, 2026. The market will resolve NO if:
The de minimis exemption continues to exist
Only partial modifications or restrictions are implemented
No changes are made to the current system
Considerations
Current proposals focus on restricting rather than eliminating the exemption
The CBP's Notice of Proposed Rulemaking suggests excluding certain shipments subject to Section 201, 232, or 301 tariffs from the exemption
Legislative proposals like the "End China's De Minimis Abuse Act" aim to modify rather than eliminate the system
Complete elimination would represent a major shift in U.S. trade policy and would likely face significant opposition from e-commerce companies and consumers
Update 2025-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification Update:
The market now applies specifically to China.
If there is any dispute regarding this focus, the resolution may be marked as N/A.
1,000
3.00@Balasar I am actually not sure whether this qualifies as "complete elimination", but the text here says that the de minimis exception was "erased".
@Balasar https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/imposing-duties-to-address-the-synthetic-opioid-supply-chain-in-the-peoples-republic-of-china/ The actual executive order: (g) For avoidance of doubt, duty-free de minimis treatment under 19 U.S.C. 1321 shall not be available for the articles described in subsection (a) of this section.
whereas Section (a) states that it applies to:
All articles that are products of the PRC, as defined by the Federal Register notice described in section 2(d) of this order (the Federal Register notice), shall be, consistent with law, subject to an additional 10 percent ad valorem rate of duty. Such rate of duty shall apply with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern time on February 4, 2025, except that goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, after such time that were loaded onto a vessel at the port of loading or in transit on the final mode of transport prior to entry into the United States before 12:01 a.m. eastern time on February 1, 2025, shall not be subject to such additional duty, only if the importer certifies to U.S. Customs and Border Protection within the Department of Homeland Security as specified in the Federal Register notice.
which sounds an awful lot like "complete elimination" with respect to China.
