A common argument against extreme AI outcomes is that current AIs like GPT are mostly just mimicking humans.
I basically think this is correct about GPT, but that it is false for other systems that have been worked on, e.g. AlphaZero or DreamerV3. I commonly explain this when discussing AI.
If an AI system gets deployed that doesn't rely on copying humans so I no longer have to explain that alternatives are on the way, this market resolves NO. That will be the case even if most people don't realize it yet, because I still need to change my explanation from "other systems are on the way" to "this isn't true anymore".
If no such AI system gets deployed, this market resolves YES.
If I change my mind in such a way as to invalidate the premises of the question, this market resolves N/A.
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