Will I think the "AI has a data bottleneck" people are dumb before the end of 2025?
Premium
12
Ṁ34352026
57%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
My current view is that synthetic data and/or RL is probably sufficient to get us to AGI, but I can respect people who think otherwise. If the gains of synthetic data and/or RL become so overwhelming at any point this year that I start to think data-naysayers are dumb, I will resolve this YES. Otherwise, I will wait until 2026 to resolve this NO. I won't trade on this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
I think that there is no bottleneck as there's a lot of non-public data that will find its way into training through partnerships, etc.
The idea of a bottleneck is partly based on a wrong assumption about data resources and their utilization to date.
Thinking of proprietary technical standards, etc.
Related questions
Related questions
By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?
25% chance
Will 2024 be the year when AI capabilities progress from AI hardware scaling hits a wall?
29% chance
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
40% chance
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
29% chance
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028?
28% chance
Will I be convinced that gen-AI will create tailwinds that overflow to non-gen AI aspects of hyperscalers’ by June 2025?
46% chance
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?
67% chance
Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?
41% chance