Listed every State Proposition for California for the upcoming Nov 2026 midterm. Market resolves before election day because I care about knowing the market's view on ballot outcomes before election day.
Each proposition will end in either a YES or NO vote according to its rules (ie I'm not sure if certain propositions require a super majority vs a simple majority to pass etc).
Props 40, 41, 42, 43 are interconnected and have generated a lot of buzz. I'm the most interested in these four measures.
## Oct 31, 2026 Update
Because of those four propositions being interconnected, I will determine in isolation whether or not each one passes - ie even if 42 or 42 get more Yes votes and make 40 void BUT 40 on its own passes, I'll resolve 40 as a Yes/Pass even though it became negated.
People are also trading
Not sure why the market closing date shifted to the 17th... I swore I had it ending tonight and just now moved it to end tonight, Nov 3rd Pacific time. Sorry about any confusion around this.
I'll resolve it once votes are definitively counted.
@mitchellreynolds markets that are in the display dashboard were extended so the probabilities displayed were accurate

