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Which Nov 2026 California ballot propositions will pass?
22
Ṁ1.4kṀ2.3k
13 hours ago
81%
38 (Bonds for Immunology Research)
80%
42 (Bans New State Personal Property Taxes)
73%
41 (Limits New State Taxes; Special Tax Audits)
71%
05 (Changes Statewide Recall Process)
59%
04 (Repeals Ban on Public Campaign Financing)
31%
45 (Modifies Environmental Review for Certain Projects)
28%
43 (Limits Voters' Ability to Raise Local Revenue)
27%
40 (One-Time Tax on Billionaires)
Resolved
YES
01 (Bonds for Housing Affordability Programs)
Resolved
YES
02 (Increases State's Rainy Day Fund)
Resolved
YES
03 (Extends High-Income Tax for Schools & Health)
Resolved
YES
37 (Loans for Middle-Income Homebuyers)

Listed every State Proposition for California for the upcoming Nov 2026 midterm. Market resolves before election day because I care about knowing the market's view on ballot outcomes before election day.

Each proposition will end in either a YES or NO vote according to its rules (ie I'm not sure if certain propositions require a super majority vs a simple majority to pass etc).

Props 40, 41, 42, 43 are interconnected and have generated a lot of buzz. I'm the most interested in these four measures.

## Oct 31, 2026 Update
Because of those four propositions being interconnected, I will determine in isolation whether or not each one passes - ie even if 42 or 42 get more Yes votes and make 40 void BUT 40 on its own passes, I'll resolve 40 as a Yes/Pass even though it became negated.

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Not sure which Mod account I should tag but I wanted this to close EOD for trading but I'll resolve later, say 1-2 days. Please don't change again

Not sure why the market closing date shifted to the 17th... I swore I had it ending tonight and just now moved it to end tonight, Nov 3rd Pacific time. Sorry about any confusion around this.

I'll resolve it once votes are definitively counted.

@mitchellreynolds markets that are in the display dashboard were extended so the probabilities displayed were accurate

@Jack1 may have been an error if none of these were on there

@Jack1 confirmed that something got weird 20h ago