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MANIFOLD
Will The California Billionaire Wealth Tax pass if it is on the ballot in 2026?
44
Ṁ1kṀ19k
Dec 31
24%
chance

Resolves Yes if it passes, Resolves no if it is on the ballot and fails, and resolves n/a if it doesn’t appear on the ballot.

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcabillionairetax/will-california-have-a-billionaire-tax-referendum/kxcabillionairetax-26nov03

I will use Kalshi to decide if it is on the ballot.

I can resolve n/a early before the end of the year if it is impossible to appear on the ballot.

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Just clarifying: by pass, you mean ‘win’ or ‘takes effect’? IIUC the two countermeasures, prop 41 and 42, could also pass and thereby nullify prop 40. What happens if 40 + 41 and/or 42 pass?

@MachiNi resolves yes if prop 40 passes

41/42 don’t matter here

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