poll is out https://manifold.markets/strutheo/do-you-prefer-to-bet-yes-or-bet-no

Nothing Ever Happens.

Interestingly, as of this writing, there are more "Prefer to bet YES" holders. So if this market was the poll, YES would win. Great profit opportunity!

This really should say YES. We have the data.

There is a YES bias across the board. For example, if the question says 60% probability, there is a 52% chance it resolves YES. People here are voting YES more than they should, and that is true for every data point in the graph.

• https://manifold.markets/calibration

@SIMOROBO If there is a YES bias system-wide then having a NO bias is more profitable by definition.

@thepurplebull indeed NO may be more profitable but, people prefer to bet YES anyway.

@SIMOROBO but don't most questions resolve no? I read the question as "do people vote no or yes on average", not "do more people vote no when they should vote yes or the reverse". The question doesn't mention calibration or being correct.

@Ramble @SIMOROBO also its a self reported poll so preference is what people (think they) enjoy doing

Bruh do other people instinctively bet in one direction regardless of credence? That sounds crazy lol

@TheAllMemeingEye i find it easier to bet NO than YES

@strutheo it literally takes more button presses to bet no from the browse tab haha

@TheAllMemeingEye lol maybe not in terms of button presses, but making a decision

@strutheo what motivates you to want to bet at all if you don't have a conscious credence significantly different from the current odds?

@TheAllMemeingEye i guess it just feels easier to rule things out than account for possibilities

i'm def a NO guy