I wish Manifold had a candid polling feature. Let's say it worked somewhat like a subsidy, and it polled by popping up in random users' feeds. With an option to keep results hidden until resolved. I think this would remove the entire "vote to win" aspect from what is a pretty popular site dynamic; "resolves to vote."

My NO’s are pretty fucking bang-on. I get fooled into some dumb YESes, but demonstrably far fewer bad NOs

@mattyb It’s beautiful. Holy crap

Can someone explain the calibration graph using human language? I've read the "interpretation" half a dozen times and still only understand the words RED and GREEN.

@GazDownright each column has a red and green arrow. you want the green arrow above the diagonal line, the red arrow below the line

those arrows are made up of the 3 largest YES (or NO) bet sizes in that percentage range (ie 60-70%)

it only counts YN markets afaik, and does not count selling, and there are a bunch of other nuances .

@strutheo Okay, getting there. What does the vertical distance from the diagonal line represent? Does it count limit orders?

@GazDownright the price when you bought vs. when you sold.

(afaik) if you buy something at 5%, it’ll start at 5% on the X axis and Y axis. as the bet itself does well/poorly, it’ll move up/down the Y axis. so if you buy a YES at 10%, and it goes up to 90% before you sell, the icon will be a green up arrow at (10, 90).

for limit orders, they don’t count until they’re activated. setting a limit doesn’t guarantee a position unless the limit’s conditions are met.

does that help?

@mattyb I think it nudged me another step towards understanding, cheers.

see: https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-manifolds-preferred-betting-st