
Will Bryan Johnson live to 85 years old?
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Same table, the 85 rung: on SSA's 2023 period life table for men, 39% of 49-year-olds reach 85 (55% reach 80, 21% reach 90). Income is the one adjustment with hard numbers: men in the top 1% had a life expectancy at 40 of 87.3 years in Chetty et al. (JAMA 2016), a mean rather than a floor, sitting just above this market's threshold, so 67% is roughly top-1% man plus a little. Whether anything pharmacological adds to that is exactly what no human trial has measured; the first controlled lifespan results for any anti-aging drug are due from pet dogs around 2029 to 2031 (TRIAD with rapamycin, Loyal's STAY study), which is early enough to matter for a man of 49 if they are positive (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/why-dogs.html?v=2
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