Resolves YES if Bryan Johnson, the founder and current CEO of Kernel, reaches the age of 100. Resolves NO immediately if he dies aged 99 or younger.
As context, he has gone to remarkable lengths to attempt to extend his life.
1,000People are also trading
Table baseline for a man of 49 (born August 1977): on the SSA 2023 period life table, 999 of the 91,565 US men alive at exact age 49 reach 100, about 1.1%; 21% reach 90. Wealth and clean living help (about 15 years of life expectancy at 40 between the richest and poorest 1% of US men, Chetty et al., JAMA 2016), which plausibly lifts the century odds into the mid single digits. The gap to this market's 34% is a bet that his regimen cuts his mortality hazard by about four fifths at every age, more than any intervention has achieved in a controlled trial in any mammal (the best replicated drug effect, rapamycin in the NIA mouse program, is 23 to 26% more median lifespan). Whether any regimen moves a survival curve at all is now being tested in dogs rather than people, because a lifespan answer there takes about 4.6 years instead of 21. The arithmetic with sources (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/why-dogs.html?v=2
