Will Bryan Johnson live to be 100 years old? | Manifold

Will Bryan Johnson live to be 100 years old?

Plus

28

Ṁ2683

2077

47%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if Bryan Johnson, the founder and current CEO of Kernel, reaches the age of 100. Resolves NO immediately if he dies aged 99 or younger.

As context, he has gone to remarkable lengths to attempt to extend his life.

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predictedNO

If you think the chance of Carter reaching 100 is 17%, the chance of Johnson reaching it is definitely not 68%.

predictedNO

I'm not sure if it's possible to arb with a numeric market but if anyone wants to try:

Dang I just had this exact market idea verbatim

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