Background Bryan Johnson, a 47-year-old tech entrepreneur, has gained attention for his extreme anti-aging regimen called Blueprint. He reportedly spends $2 million annually on various treatments and interventions aimed at extending his lifespan, including a strict diet, exercise routine, and numerous supplements. Johnson claims his biological measurements show signs of age reversal, though these claims are disputed by some medical professionals.
The current U.S. life expectancy is approximately 76.4 years, though this figure will likely change by the time of Johnson's death.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:
Bryan Johnson dies at an age that is at least 10 years greater than the life expectancy reported by the CDC or WHO (whichever is higher) for the year of his death for the USA.
For example, if Johnson dies in 2060 when life expectancy is 80, he would need to be at least 90 years old for this market to resolve YES
This market will resolve NO if:
Johnson dies at an age less than 10 years above the life expectancy at time of death
This includes death by any cause (natural, accidental, etc.)
Considerations
Life expectancy is likely to increase over time due to medical advances
Johnson's extreme anti-aging protocols are experimental and their long-term effects are unknown
Some medical professionals have expressed concerns about potential negative interactions between his numerous interventions
The market resolution will be based on official life expectancy statistics at time of death, not current life expectancy
1,000
3.00Wouldn't it make more sense for it to be based on the average for his year of birth? Otherwise he could do much better than his cohort, but life expectancy of new babies being born could push the number up (though I suppose life expectancy should generally only be calculated based on those who have already died)
@MingCat as I see it that for calculating the average lifespan of people born in a specific year we would need to wait until everyone born in such year die. So we probably won't have that information available at the time of his death.