Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Bryan Johnson (born August 22, 1977) reaches his 100th birthday (August 22, 2077). Resolution will be determined by verified public records of his death or survival at that date. If Johnson is alive on August 22, 2077, the market resolves YES. If he dies before that date, it resolves NO.

Background

Johnson has received media attention for his anti-aging attempt that he refers to as "Project Blueprint". The tech entrepreneur turned biohacker spends over $2 million per year on his "Blueprint" anti-aging protocol. Johnson has determined that his average pace of aging is 0.66 years per year—0.66 years of epigenetic aging per chronological year, though his calculation for reducing his pace of aging by 31 years is unsubstantiated.

Moshe Szyf, a professor of pharmacology and therapeutics at McGill University, has expressed skepticism that science is yet capable of achieving the remarkable results that Johnson claims to be reaching, and Andrew Steele, a longevity scientist and author, emphasizes that no amount of the practices that Johnson is doing can change his genes.

Considerations

Dr. Nir Barzilai has serious reservations about Johnson taking so many supplements and treatments at once, warning that all the different pills could interact with one another in dangerous ways, noting that doctors normally research the effects of one drug at a time, rather than the cumulative effects of more than 100 pills at once. Additionally, Johnson underwent plasma transfusions but says he will not repeat them due to lack of benefits, and the FDA has stated that transfusions such as the kind Johnson had are without benefit and may be harmful.