Will a human walk on Mars before strong AGI is achieved?
Plus
48
Ṁ12002033
44%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Mars as determined by general societal consensus
AGI as determined by Manifold's official market and/or general societal consensus
Market extended until either happens
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?
72% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
39% chance
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
30% chance
Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?
34% chance
Will we have AGI before a Mars colony?
72% chance
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
40% chance
Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell?
58% chance
Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
33% chance
Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?
59% chance
Will AGI be achieved in the next 5 years?
38% chance