Update 2025-09-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Death does not count as being "removed". Resignation may count if it is forced.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, None by the end of his current term, followed by Other and Hakeem Jeffries are most likely. See the market for live updates (10 traders, as of Sep 29, 2025).

Who will be the first member of Congress impeached or removed under Trump's current administration?

MANIFOLD

Who will be the first member of Congress impeached or removed under Trump's current administration?

Ṁ125Ṁ180

2029

48%

None by the end of his current term

Ilhan Omar

1.5%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Hakeem Jeffries

44%

Other

Update 2025-09-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Death does not count as being "removed".
- Resignation may count if it is forced.

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How does resigning or dying resolve?

@BenM dying doesnt count, resigning maybe if forced somehow?

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