Which of these four events will happen first? #1
Which of these four events will happen first? #1
87
1.2kṀ44532040
1D
1W
1M
ALL
13%
First female president of the USA
2%
Pickleball in the Olympics
52%
Human walks on the moon again
33%
Bitcoin reaches $200K USD
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Curling was added in 1998 and the Quebec curling federation was founded in 1976. The pickleball federation was founded in 2011. So 2033?
will it resolve to pickle ball in the Olympics when the sport is played or when it is announced, considering that the announcement comes much before the Olympics itself?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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