Updates:

• Break a bone: have not gotten close, though I am likely driving ~3000 miles in the next month. Also, I have started biking more around cities. I have still not gone skiing.

• Get married: 2025 was a good year for this; I'd be very surprised if I got married by the end of 2026, but would put >20% by the end of 2027.

• Defend my PhD thesis: seems unlikely at this point, unless I do some sort of stapled thesis speedrun.

• Visit Africa: still no particular plans; though I am ~30% likely to go to Central Asia this year, which would move up Africa in my list of "places to visit".

• Win elected office: I briefly considered re-registering in Lexington and running for town meeting. I may pursue this if I move to MA; our precinct has 9 representatives, and most years only 9 people run. I probably have a 10% chance of running in March 2027, and maybe a 50% chance of winning conditional on trying? Though it is unclear why, exactly, I would do this.

• Get sentenced to >1 year in prison: not committing any crimes. However, I do run a venture-funded startup now, which should increase your priors on me accidentally messing up compared to doing independent grant-funded research or a PhD. On the other hand, I now have legal counsel.

• Own a >1000 gallon aquarium: I've been investigating the idea of getting a saltwater tank, which is a dangerous rabbit hole. If I get one, the odds of a second, a third, ..., a 2000-gallon one definitely go up...

• Win a major fencing competition: I'm in even better shape now due to tennis and biking, but have no particular fencing skills.

• Die: see "Break a bone"; my odds of dying are likely dominated by accidents.

Updates:

• Break a bone: still have not gotten particularly close, and no longer have any upcoming long road trips.

• Get married: working on it, but seems unlikely for the next year, at least.

• Defend by PhD thesis: I've taken a leave of absence for the spring semester, so this will probably take at least another 4 years, and that's if I come back to my program.

• Visit Africa: no particular plans; still would prefer to visit Kyrgyzstan and Suriname before Africa, but perhaps Malawi is in third place in this category of "places I want to visit simply because they're cool and not because I know anyone there", which currently is not a category of places I visit often.

• Win elected office: I'll do it if it feels like the highest-impact thing I can do, which at the moment seems unlikely (but who knows?). Seems more likely if e.g. all researchers get replaced by AI in the next 6 months.

• Get sentenced to >1 year in prison: not committing any crimes.

• Own a >1000 gallon aquarium: I'd probably want to buy a house first, which might happen in the next year or two but probably still unlikely

• Win a major fencing competition: I have put no effort into this.

• Die: I guess I bike a lot, but don't otherwise do especially dumb things. Maybe if I get an especially high-paying job I'll start skiing a lot, which can be dangerous.

Updates:

• Break a bone: have not gotten particularly close. I am going on a decently long road trip soon, so maybe there's some chance of getting into a car crash?

• Get married: not close at the moment, but I intend to do this within the next 1-10 years.

• Defend my PhD thesis: I've started my PhD degree!

• Visit Africa: not currently planned. I think the first "nonstandard" place I'd like to visit is Central Asia.

• Win elected office: I did consider running for a Massachusetts State Senate seat if I didn't get a research position, but I got the position and so never ended up filing.

• Get sentenced to >1 year in prison: I'm not committing any crimes in the US; maybe if I go to some random country with a different judicial system this could be more relevant, but I'm not planning on it.

• Own a >1000 gallon aquarium: I have previously owned a 36-gallon aquarium, but I don't really have a house/a permanent place to live in, so this seems unlikely, at least over the next year or two.

• Win a major fencing competition: I've fenced once in my life, and for a brief moment I was up 1–0 against the winner of the youth olympics in foil. (I then lost 1–13).

• Die: I am not currently planning on it, and am in good health. However, I am going on a ~1000 mile road trip soon.