Which of the following events will happen first?
30
1kแน17152030
0.5%
A military coup seizes power in a G8 country
0.3%
A nuclear weapon is used on the battlefield (not a test)
0.5%
Bitcoin price falls to $10,000
3%
Bitcoin price reaches $200,000
0.3%
Bitcoin recognised as legal tender in at least five G8 countries
3%
Both Biden and Trump have died
0.3%
Football team AS Roma builds a new stadium and plays the first official game in it
1.6%
Forbes announced the world's first trillionaire
61%
Half-Life 3 is released
0.3%
Jimmy Carter turns 102 years old
4%
Man walks on the moon again
23%
Taiwan is annexed by China
0.3%
Taylor Swift successfully concludes a second pregnancy
0.5%
The number of judges on the US Supreme Court becomes higher than the current 9
0.4%
The year 2030 begins (and none of the other options has happened)
Market resolves when one of the options becomes true, or if the year 2029 ends and none has happened yet.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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