Six months after the pivot, will 50% of legacy Manifold users report they like the site more than before the changes?
Basic
46
4.6k
Nov 17
23%
chance

Changes include:

  • Economy modifications

  • Spice

  • Pivot changes yet to be announced

Poll will only count users with accounts made BEFORE April 19nd 2024 (3 days before pivot announcement)

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bought Ṁ15 NO

The pivot got rid of loans, right? Given that, I can’t see any point to betting on long term markets.

Yeah, long term markets took a hard one.

What was the pivot date?
17 May?

Will market close be adjusted to that?

reposted

pivot bump

No chance, real money markets are going to bring in toxic people who actually are degenerate gamblers. The comment section is about to get much more annoying.
I would be betting this down to 5% but I'm selling all my positions right now.

@TiredCliche also the legacy users might leave quicker than i thought so have to take that into account with the poll...

reposted

bump now that we know

I'll buy some Yes shares if you will commit to an outline of who eligible poll voters will be. I'm not going to buy shares in this market if brand new users who never experienced the pre-pivot site are going to be allowed to vote.

@Eliza how can i figure it out ? someone with api want to help

@strutheo As of today, if you hover on a user's name, it shows their date of joining. The join date is easily visible in the UI. It is also available in the API.

@Eliza oh! then yes, i will only count votes from people whos account was made BEFORE PIVOT DATE (tbd)

@strutheo I'd say before the pivot was first announced is more like it; now the cat is out of the bag.

I'm just trying to think about which 6 month periods I would say I liked the site better or worse in, before taking a position.....

Late 2022 - Mid 2023: Much better because I actually started participating, even though I still wished I could easily make questions just for my own little group of people instead of for everyone.

Spring 2023 - Fall 2023: Huge improvement, the entire site was revolutionized by multiple choice (for me)

Mid 2023 - Late 2023: MC got more mature but a lot of other things were done that I wasn't so on board with. Overall felt pretty neutral, maybe slightly better

Fall 2023 - Spring 2024: Definitely lower -- disappointed in a lot of directional choices in this period and lack of attention toward other things that could have had a better impact.

Overall I like a lot of the things in the economy realignment announcement, but I'm not convinced enough other traders will agree to keep the site's activity level high. The pivot has to happen on top of that to regrow interest in the site. If the activity level goes down, I think people will probably say they like the site less because it will be a ghost town.

/market Six months after the pivot will 50% of the users who bet on this market in the first 5 days still be active users?

reposted

🤔💭

@strutheo The people who are still around to vote in the poll could be more likely to vote yes. Nevertheless, it's still an interesting question!

@JamesGrugett true maybe 6 months is better

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