Manifold Big Pivot: Conditional on at least one user publicly quits within 3 days of reveal, what will be true?

Question

Add your own. Close date pushed out so that answer “They show up at Manifest anyway” can resolve.

Added clarification: they have to stay inactive on Manifold at least 3 days after quit.

ETA June 11 2024: did anyone who quit around the time of the Big Pivot show up at Manifest? I didn’t go so no idea.

I’ll ask @mods for help soonish on resolving this one, Pretty sure we are post-pivot now, but if it officially happened at a single point in time I missed it. My sense is it was a bunch of adjustments made over a week or two including but not limited to Prize Points, Plus Markets and a “sweepstakes model” that I haven’t boned up on. There was also noticeable improvement to my feed recently, probably related. Comments welcome.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, A market will be opened betting on the timeframe of their return, followed by They will be in Diamond league in month of reveal and They will show up at Manifest anyway are most likely. See the market for live updates (16 traders, as of Jun 11, 2024).