Manifold Big Pivot: Conditional on at least one user publicly quits within 3 days of reveal, what will be true?
16
1kṀ360Jun 11
93%
A market will be opened betting on the timeframe of their return
67%
They will be in Diamond league in month of reveal
66%
They will show up at Manifest anyway
54%
They will have a position in this market on day of reveal
50%
They will N/A all their open markets
50%
They will be in Masters league in the month of reveal
37%
They will reference the words “radical transparency” in their leaving announcement
34%
They accuse another Manifold user of being a "janny" or "powerjanny" in their leaving announcement
34%
They will reference the word "rationalussy" in their leaving announcement
Add your own. Close date pushed out so that answer “They show up at Manifest anyway” can resolve.
Added clarification: they have to stay inactive on Manifold at least 3 days after quit.
ETA June 11 2024: did anyone who quit around the time of the Big Pivot show up at Manifest? I didn’t go so no idea.
I’ll ask @mods for help soonish on resolving this one, Pretty sure we are post-pivot now, but if it officially happened at a single point in time I missed it. My sense is it was a bunch of adjustments made over a week or two including but not limited to Prize Points, Plus Markets and a “sweepstakes model” that I haven’t boned up on. There was also noticeable improvement to my feed recently, probably related. Comments welcome.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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