Manifold Big Pivot: Conditional on at least one user publicly quits within 3 days of reveal, what will be true?

Plus

Ṁ360

Jun 11

93%

A market will be opened betting on the timeframe of their return

67%

They will be in Diamond league in month of reveal

66%

They will show up at Manifest anyway

54%

They will have a position in this market on day of reveal

50%

They will N/A all their open markets

50%

They will be in Masters league in the month of reveal

37%

They will reference the words “radical transparency” in their leaving announcement

34%

They accuse another Manifold user of being a "janny" or "powerjanny" in their leaving announcement

34%

They will reference the word "rationalussy" in their leaving announcement

Add your own. Close date pushed out so that answer “They show up at Manifest anyway” can resolve.

Added clarification: they have to stay inactive on Manifold at least 3 days after quit.

ETA June 11 2024: did anyone who quit around the time of the Big Pivot show up at Manifest? I didn’t go so no idea.

I’ll ask @mods for help soonish on resolving this one, Pretty sure we are post-pivot now, but if it officially happened at a single point in time I missed it. My sense is it was a bunch of adjustments made over a week or two including but not limited to Prize Points, Plus Markets and a “sweepstakes model” that I haven’t boned up on. There was also noticeable improvement to my feed recently, probably related. Comments welcome.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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@traders is anyone getting impatient or can I wait for @Manifold here? Pivot is becoming the Comet Kohoutek of wet squibs.

@Manifold since I made this market it has become nebulous whether/when the Pivot is or was or will be “revealed.” News seems to have sort of dribbled out. Can we declare it “revealed” yet? Or are we still waiting on something? Shall more be revealed?

reposted

Timely

FYI: I'm leaving now. I tried to N/A all my open markets, but it wouldn't let me (saying the "negative payout is too high")(, so I resolved them to current % instead.

How long does someone have to be gone for this to count?

I wouldn't want someone to "quit" just to resolve this market and then join again the next day.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 They have to stay inactive at least 3 days, which most people who are so addicted to Manifold as to try to game this market won’t be able to do.

If someone does quit in a way that resolves one of the options in their own favor, then returns after 73 hours to collect the mana, I guess we’ll have to publicly shame them and call in the mods.

They accuse another Manifold user of being a "janny" or "powerjanny" in their leaving announcement

I’ll bite. What is a “janny”? Too lazy to go on Discord and find out.

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