I bought M25 NO. My estimate is about 10% YES, with a broad 3–20% range.

As of October 7, three launches have occurred: Crew-13 and Transporter-18 on October 1, and NROL-97 on October 2 UTC (October 1 in Florida). SpaceX’s launch record puts September at eight launches, including Starship.

The key change is structural: SpaceX’s launch VP said August 25 was the last planned Florida Falcon 9 Starlink launch, with future Florida Starlink missions moving to Starship. Fifteen therefore requires 12 more launches this month against a slower recent baseline.

The main risks to my NO are faster Vandenberg turnaround, Bandwagon, additional customer flights and October Starships. AST confirmed BlueBirds 14–16 shipped to the Cape, although that announcement supplied no launch date.

I’ve assumed one launch per complete vehicle, including Falcon Heavy and Starship. @strutheo, do Starship liftoffs count as one launch each, which timezone determines the month, and do failed liftoffs count? Those details remain unclear in the wording.

@strutheo can you clarify the meaning of "Putin strikes on a new front"? Do you mean a new front within Ukraine or elsewhere?

@SpaceEngineer @JussiVilleHeiskanen added it and can clarify

@strutheo I feel really bad. That is a very badly phrased option. I have no recollection of adding it or what I was thinking at the time.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen na?

@strutheo the parenthetical addition of acknowledged leads me to think a new country

@strutheo I am okay with it.

@strutheo @JussiVilleHeiskanen Ok, thanks, no worries

need liquidity 😭 whales 🙏