☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
Standard
101
Ṁ46k
resolved Jul 23
February starts
March starts
April starts
May starts
Resolved
YES
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news / https://www.tesla-fire.com/
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month
Resolved
YES
Donald Trump favored to become President, according to Betfair, on June 30, 2024 at 11:59:59pm EDT
Resolved
YES
A hurricane or typhoon forms somewhere on the planet
Resolved
YES
Anthropic or Meta release a new model
Resolved
YES
Donald Trump debates Joe Biden
Resolved
YES
destiny sets foot in israel
Resolved
YES
The European People's Party will remain the biggest party in the European parliament
Resolved
YES
nVidia stock rises above $135 during normal, premarket, or aftermarket hours
Resolved
YES
nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization)
Resolved
YES
An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced
Resolved
YES
Jimmy Carter alive at end of month
Resolved
YES
Jimmy Carter dethroned as #1 on market “Who will be Manifold’s Person Of The Year 2024” for at least 24 hours
Resolved
YES
Starliner is in orbit
Resolved
YES
Starship Launch
Resolved
YES
large tech company announces layoffs
Resolved
YES
at least one xkcd comic with no stick figures in it
Resolved
YES
The May jobs report will show more jobs added for nonfarm payrolls than April (175,000)
Resolved
YES
V appears more than J and Z combined on english wikipedia homepage on Juneteenth
Resolved
YES
3 or more diagnoses of human H5N1 influenza in the United States

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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Donald Trump favored to become President, according to Betfair, on June 30, 2024 at 11:59:59pm EDT

@SteveSokolowski @strutheo
couple of minutes early but it is clear enough
Trump 1.76
Biden 5.9

a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news / https://www.tesla-fire.com/
bought Ṁ100 a tesla catches fire... YES

few days ago, teslas on fire in front of california dealership reported by cbs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qxgYvMq37Y

bought Ṁ10 Answer #llxyky9j1z YES

@TheAllMemeingEye @strutheo Does this count as a hit piece? EA isn't the only target, but it is specifically called out a few times.

Sam Bankman-Fried funded a group with racist ties. FTX wants its $5m back | Silicon Valley | The Guardian

I don't think that's an EA hit piece, personally.

bought Ṁ100 a tesla catches fire... YES

not really yeah... i can poll if other ppl strongly think so

bought Ṁ309 a tesla catches fire... YES

I definitely thought it counted (see comment chain below.) It's a bit of an edge case though because it's clearly 1) a hit piece 2) against EA, but it's not primarily against EA unless you count Lightcone as EA

that comment chain has the person who added this option maintaining that it doesn't count for a yes resolution, though.

it's not a hit piece against the movement - it's a hit against SBF/FTX and taking pot shots at Lightcone who isn't in and of itself, "the EA Movement" even if they support and work towards its/similar principles.

@shankypanky Yeah, that's fair. I agree that the actual connection to EA is pretty tenuous.

But I think the author of the article wants people to conclude through a long chain of guilt by association that EA is racist.

disagree on that - I think that's a bit of a leap.

and "wants people to conclude through a long chain of guilt by association" isn't a hit piece about the movement, which is mentioned but not a focus.

The European People's Party will remain the biggest party in the European parliament
A hurricane or typhoon forms somewhere on the planet
bought Ṁ39 Eliezer Yudkowsky is... YES

Eliezer is just free money? How are his chances so close to Chomsky's?

You can't bring a binary option above 99% anymore, so there's no free money there

Ah that makes sense lol

@strutheo This can resolve NO.

trying to figure out time - i think it might havev been after since he used recorded clips

bought Ṁ70 Answer #c88d5a3ffe14 NO

That wasn't a "town hall" as it's usually defined, was it? It was just a reply to their debate answers.

bought Ṁ50 Answer #38dfe38c80f7 NO

Every definition of a "town hall" I've been able to find centered around answering questions from the public/audience, not fellow politicians or debate moderators.

Anthropic or Meta release a new model
bought Ṁ220 Anthropic or Meta re... YES
reposted

upgraded

reposted

a week to go!

nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization)

By my calculations, Nvidia got up to 3.353T today but previously Apple had been worth 3.376T
I guess it will happen but I think not yet.