☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
32
329
2.4k
Jul 1
February starts
March starts
April starts
May starts
99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month
97%
at least one xkcd comic with no stick figures in it
96%
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
94%
Donald Trump debates Joe Biden
92%
A hurricane or typhoon forms somewhere on the planet
81%
Starship Launch
69%
It's the hottest June on record in the US
69%
large tech company announces layoffs
66%
It's the hottest June on record globally
62%
Donald Trump favored to become President, according to Betfair, on June 30, 2024 at 11:59:59pm EDT
61%
The May jobs report will show more jobs added for nonfarm payrolls than April (175,000)
60%
@stevesolokowski complains about this market
59%
web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month
59%
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news / https://www.tesla-fire.com/
59%
Anthropic or Meta release a new model
57%
trump announces vice president running mate
53%
Controversy in US over celebration, commemoration, demonstration or protests of Jefferson Davis's birthday (June 3)
50%
V appears more than J and Z combined on english wikipedia homepage on Juneteenth
50%
imu face reveal in one piece manga
50%
Alan's conservative countdown to AGI meets or exceeds 81%

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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@stevesolokowski complains about this market

Lol, I assume this was meant to be @SteveSokolowski?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Thanks for the catch. Looks like he is complaining already.

A poll similar to /SteveSokolowski/did-openai-achieve-weak-agi-with-gp will be posted on June 23 to resolve the question about the poll - except that the new poll will not reference any specific model.

For reference, the question in June requires 20%, while about 12% of Manifold users believe weak AGI has been achieved in mid-May.

bought Ṁ3 Donald Trump debates... YES

Could someone clarify that the OpenAI model must be non-"beta," available for anyone in the United States who wants to pay for it to use?

OpenAI has a history of making a big announcement about models and then releasing "beta" versions or rolling them out in "stages."

I like the emojis, adding them is a good idea

(deleted)

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