Each option resolves yes when he makes statements or actions that act as evidence
They can be based off statements (Trump calls for...) or for actions he actually follows through on
In the case where he cant directly do it, getting his Congress or proxy to do so will be enough
Will make a poll for individual options if unsure
Update 2025-08-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Only statements made while Trump is serving as President will count toward resolving statement-based answers; older or non-presidency quotes do not.
Update 2025-08-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory option, drone strikes count.
Any aggressive long-range attack that destroys or injures something inside Mexico counts (e.g., airstrikes, bombs, missile or drone strikes).
Update 2025-08-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the "coin or bill with his image" option: only circulating currency counts (coins/bills intended for general circulation by the government). Commemorative/non-circulating issues do not count; laws authorizing only commemoratives also do not count.
Update 2025-08-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the option 'request and successfully redraw 1/2 or more state districts':
"1/2 or more" refers to the number of states, not the number of individual districts.
1,000People are also trading
@strutheo https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/09/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-restores-the-united-states-department-of-war/
restore the historic name “Department of War” as a secondary title for the Department of Defense
Confirming that this EO is not sufficient for this red line? "secondary title" and "non-statutory" documents seems like not enough to me.
@Marnix https://manifold.markets/BenM/flag-burning-prosecution-during-tru
I set up conditions over in the dedicated market. To me it has to make it to plea. Arrest and no charges or charges dropped after a headline don't rate in my opinion.
Requesting clarification on "request and successfully redraw 1/2 or more state districts"? is "1/2 or more" referring to the number of districts or to the number of states which redraw districts? is "state districts" referring to house districts in a state, state legislative districts, other sorts of state-localized districts (public service commissioners, etc), or some number of those?
@strutheo well it looks like they did pay for it. Honestly this seems towards the bottom of the list of things I dislike Trump for.
@TheAllMemeingEye https://bbc.com/news/articles/cwy0v14vw18o
Actually he kinda crosses it length wise but that still should count
@NivlacM from my earlier comment:
As for "crossing", let's say that he has to walk on foot from a non-red area adjacent to one of the long sides to another non-red area adjacent to the opposite long side.
So walking along it length wise does not count, but still pretty close
@NivlacM hope isn't lost, if it almost happened this soon it's reasonably likely it will happen for real eventually