In what year will Mt Rainier next erupt?
4
200Ṁ645
2045
January 2, 2038
1%
Before 2026
2%
Before 2028
6%
Before 2030
11%
Before 2032
11%
Before 2034
12%
Before 2036
13%
Before 2038
50%
2038 or later

Due to its high probability of an eruption in the near future and proximity to a major urban area, Mount Rainier is considered one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world, and it is on the Decade Volcano list.[14] The large amount of glacial ice means that Mount Rainier could produce massive lahars that could threaten the entire Puyallup River valley and other river valleys draining Mount Rainier, including the Carbon, White, Nisqually, and Cowlitz (above Riffe Lake).[15] According to the United States Geological Survey's 2008 report, "about 80,000 people and their homes are at risk in Mount Rainier's lahar-hazard zones."[16]

  • Update 2025-12-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will not resolve until Mt Rainier actually erupts, regardless of when that occurs. The market will remain open indefinitely beyond the 2045 close date if necessary.

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@strutheo Will this market resolve in 2038 or not until an eruption?

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