Will a Cascade volcano erupt in the next 10 years?
Mini
3
60
2033
48%
chance

This market resolves to yes if there is Volcanic Explosivity Index 1 or greater (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_explosivity_index) eruption in the Cascade arc by Nov. 11, 2033. Any eruption within a rectangle defined by the points (41°N, 120°W) and (52°N, 127°W) will count towards resolution. I will use a consensus of reputable sources (e.g., USGS) to determine the VEI of an eruption.

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