README: Answers will resolve as they happen or EOY 2025 to the percentage that matches the given value. If the value is greater than 100, it will resolve 100%.
Examples:
If there are 60 Republican senators at EOY 2025, it will resolve 60%
If the Doomsday Clock is at 120 seconds to midnight, it will resolve 100%
If the Chat GPT version number is 7.5, it will resolve 75%
Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Minecraft Bedrock patch numbers, if the last patch is in format X.Y.ZZZ (e.g., 1.21.129), the resolution will be based on the last 2 digits only (e.g., 29% for 1.21.129), not the full final number segment.
Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For "Average of the Jersey numbers of the Cy Young award winner": The answer will resolve to the average of both the American League and National League Cy Young award winners' jersey numbers (since there are two Cy Young awards given out).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ703 | |
| 2 | Ṁ98 | |
| 3 | Ṁ37 | |
| 4 | Ṁ35 | |
| 5 | Ṁ19 |
People are also trading
@strutheo
12 Tropical cyclones if we do not count subtropical Karen.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/
11 trillion dollar companies
https://companiesmarketcap.com/
(no recent movements past $1T threshold.)
54 operating nuclear plants
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/us-nuclear-industry.php
(no recent changes I can find)
AI reply:
The 2024-2025 Broadway season featured 43 total new productions, comprising 14 new musicals, 7 musical revivals, 14 new plays, and 7 play revivals, with one special.
sounds like 28 or 29 or 43?
AI reply:
As of late 2024 to early 2025, the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) is recognized by approximately 39 to 46 UN member states, though the number has fluctuated significantly over time. While over 80 countries have recognized it historically, many have since "frozen" or withdrawn their recognition. It remains a member of the African Union (AU).
Doesn't seem very clear or up to date?
@strutheo
https://feedback.minecraft.net/hc/en-us/articles/41979788279181-Minecraft-1-21-131-Bedrock
131 16 Dec 2025
https://feedback.minecraft.net/hc/en-us/articles/42519424555021-Minecraft-1-21-132-Bedrock
132 8 Jan 2026
So resolves at 31%
Tropical cyclones 12 or 13? https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/
MAU no longer on stats page: hmm not sure if you can ask someone
Bitcoin value $88263
Key Details for GPT-5.2:
Release Date: December 11, 2025.
largest Earthquake was 8.8 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_2025#By_magnitude
Resolve at least these easy ones please.
@strutheo Atlantic hurricane season is over, or would a December tropical cyclone count as in season?
Is it named tropical cyclones or do numbered depressions and subtropical storms count?
Is there some means of counting unnamed tropical cyclones or is NHC arbiter of whether a system is a tropical cyclone?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/
So currently 13 counting subtropical Karen or 12 not counting Karen or something else? (and is it resolvable now?)
@strutheo Trump has signed over 100 executive orders in his second term, so I think this can resolve YES: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_executive_orders_in_the_second_presidency_of_Donald_Trump
Top 100 profile pics as of start of 2024 (some are gifs and only show first frame)
imgur version - https://imgur.com/a/poG5ube
Where can we see the current top 100?
Do these users count as having an anime pfp?
https://manifold.markets/PunishedFurry
https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere
@Tumbles this one is going to be judged by me at the time to the best of my abilities.
ill count both those as anime
EDIT: no longer sure
and i was hoping there would be a good way to see this. anyone know of a hidden page somewhere?
@strutheo You want the 100 traders with the highest lifetime profit? That's easy to get from the API.
@IsaacKing sure can someone post the current 100 profile pics, any format will do. and then ill ask a kind soul to do the same EOY 2025 , ty
@Tumbles reconsidering both those, might just post polls at the end to determine ones we're unsure about 'is this an anime profile pic'