What valuations will Thinking Machines reach by EOY 2027?

Question

if Thinking Machines raises funds at a certain valuation (or does a deal which is similarly indicative of the lab's value) the option at or below that valuation resolve YES.

at end of year 2027, any options not yet met resolve NO

Update 2025-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding potential acquisitions of Thinking Machines, the creator has indicated that the specific form an acquisition takes will be a factor in determining the valuation for market resolution. The structure and terms of the deal will be considered when assessing if it is 'similarly indicative of the lab's value' and at what resulting valuation.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, $30 Billion, followed by $50 Billion and $100 Billion are most likely. See the market for live updates (7 traders, as of Oct 18, 2026).

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