README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:
1st event: 1% (happens soonest)
2nd event: 2% (happens next)
...
100th event: 100% (happens latest)
Any events that do not happen by EOY 2024 will be resolved 100% YES.
1,000
3.00Looks like
61 Nobel peace prize winner announced 11 Oct
https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/articles/nobel-peace-prize-2024-announcement
the ceremony is not til Dec but it is announcement that counts.
62 Rivals of Aether 2 released 23 Oct
https://store.steampowered.com/app/2217000/Rivals_of_Aether_II/
Other could slip in earlier than these so could be higher but probably should expecting at least these to happen:
63 First game of MLB world series 26th Oct
64/5 Halloween 31 Oct
64/5 Last game of MLB world series 30th Oct - 3 Nov
66+? Election called if not tight 6th Nov
67+? Rookie of the year mid Nov
68+? Cy Young mid Nov
69+? Thanksgiving 28 Nov
70+? Boxing day 26 Dec
Edited - didn't see the list below.
Up to 58% is resolved, and 59 and 60 need to be resolved.
Paging @strutheo
@strutheo
Iphone release and frostpunk 2 both on 20 Sept.
I believe frostpunk 2 was 10am PDT (saw a countdown time) and while I don't know but would guess iphones could be collected earlier. Store opening time EST?
@strutheo
So 55 iphone
56 Frostpunl 2
and
57 Hurricane John 4th pacific hurricane
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/232049.shtml
@strutheo
55 iphone Sept 20
56 Frostpunk 2 Sept 20
57 Hurricane John 4th pacific hurricane Sept 27
58 Second solar eclipse Oct 2
or is there anything else before these?
(I assume Rivals of Aether 2 early access beta weekend from September 27-29 doesn't count)
@strutheo
55 iphone Sept 20
56 Frostpunk 2 Sept 20
57 Hurricane John 4th pacific hurricane Sept 27
58 Second solar eclipse Oct 2
59 EOD Leif Erikson day Oct 9
60 SpaceX 100 launches Oct 15
or is there anything else before these?
(I assume Rivals of Aether 2 early access beta weekend from September 27-29 doesn't count)
@strutheo So resolvable we have:
52% 3rd Pacific hurricane, Hone, 25 Aug
Iphone reveal 10th, but officially releases 20 Sept, so not yet?
53% 4th Atlantic hurricane, Francine 10 September
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/al06/al062024.public_a.009.shtml?
@strutheo
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/cp01/cp012024.public.012.shtml?
...HONE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
@strutheo ^ hasn't been resolved.:
East Pacific Carlotte & Gilma and Central Pacific Hone
Just noting this again from Aug 24th before iphone release.
jective intensity estimates from
UW-CIMSS range from 61-68 kt. Based on these subjective and
objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity is bumped up to
65 kt, making Gilma the second hurricane of the 2024 East Pacific
hurricane season.https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/210849.shtml
@strutheo
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/ERNESTO.shtml?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/al05/al052024.discus.012.shtml?
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
Based on these data, Ernesto is upgraded
to a 65-kt hurricane.
@strutheo
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#03E
reports Hurricane Carlotte so NHC will very probably report this before this hour is up.
https://store.epicgames.com/en-US/p/world-of-goo-2
still says coming soon but timing could be hard to pin down later and it might be available elsewhere already?