What will be true of the US-Ukraine minerals deal?
8
150Ṁ3402026
47%
Proposed reconstruction and investment fund is initiated by the end of 2026 (it actually begins to fund reconstruction projects and receive investments/mineral profits)
34%
American companies secure >33% of the monetary value of Ukrainian post-war reconstruction contracts
34%
Either the US or Ukraine demand to renegotiate the deal by the end of Trump's second term
17%
US company or government takes ownership and operation of Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
13%
Deal includes security guarantee (guarantee that the US will defend Ukrainian sovereignty for a certain period of time post-war)
Resolved
YESThe deal is actually signed (still resolves YES even if modifications are made to the deal)
The US and Ukraine recently announced a new minerals deal but have not revealed the full details. What will the deal entail? Resolution will based on the spirit of the answers, and if there is significant controversy we will try to clarify the resolution criteria or resolve N/A. I will not trade on highly subjective resolution criteria.
All users are free to add new answers, but I reserve the right to remove any answers I think are counter to the purpose of the market.
Epistemic standards: reporting from well-established journalists and news publications, official financial disclosures from the fund if it is established, third-party sources
If the deal is not actually signed, all options resolve NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will U.S. Congress approve new Ukraine aid package by June 30, 2025?
32% chance
Will Trump sign a deal with Ukraine providing military support in exchange for rare earths by the end of 2025?
71% chance
Will the EU sign a rare earths deal with Ukraine ?
14% chance
Will mining become more prevalent in the United States as the War in Ukraine continues?
91% chance
If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?
14% chance
Will Ukraine repeal the presidential decree that forbids negotiations with Vladimir Putin by the end of 2025?
79% chance
Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)
84% chance
Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2030?
14% chance
Will Ukraine cede any of its territory to Russia by 2025? [150M subsidy]
7% chance
Will the USA pass the aid bill for Ukraine?
94% chance