What will happen after President Zelensky signs bill №12414 into law?
3
1.1kṀ105
2027
62%
An anti-corruption protest with at least 10,000 attendees will take place in a Ukrainian city in July 2025
57%
Volodymyr Zelensky's trust rating will fall below 50% in a poll published by KIIS, Rating or Razumkov in 2025
50%
The European Commission will issue a formal statement expressing opposition to the law in July 2025
50%
The Ukrainian parliament's trust rating will fall below 10% in a poll published by Razumkov in 2025
50%
The law will be repealed or annulled in full by the end of 2025
50%
Ukraine will receive a lower score in the 2026 edition of the Corruption Perceptions Index than in the 2024 edition
50%
The New York Times will publish an editorial criticising Volodymyr Zelensky by the end of August 2025
39%
Donald Trump will describe Volodymyr Zelensky as "corrupt" in July 2025

Background

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has signed bill №12414 into law, sparking concern for the independence of Ukraine's anti-corruption bodies.

Resolution principles

  • It will be presumed that an event has not occurred until it is established to have occurred.

  • In the event that the resolution of the market is subjective or contentious, traders will be properly consulted.

Glossary

EU refers to the European Union.

KIIS refers to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.

Rating (with an uppercase R) refers to Rating Group.

Razumkov refers to the Razumkov Centre.

The Ukrainian parliament refers to the Verkhovna Rada.

Clarifications

An 'anti-corruption protest' will include any protest related to this law.

The 'trust rating' of a person or institution is calculated by each polling organisation, but generally refers to the combined percentage of respondents who say that they completely trust or rather trust the person or institution.

The 2024 edition of the Corruption Perceptions Index was published in 2025, and likewise, the 2026 edition may be published in 2027.

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