If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?
28
1kṀ16072052
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Currently the Peace deal Russia is offering is as follows
- Ukraine recognises Crimea as Russian territory
- Ukraine recognises the independence of the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk
- Ukraine does not join the EU or NATO
- Ukraine changes its constitiution to enshrine neutrality.
This question resolves N/A if the war in Ukraine ends or reaches longterm ceasefire, but under different conditions than outlined above. Or if the year ends without ceasefire
This question resolves "NO" If
- Ukraine complies to these terms
- Russia at any moment agrees that they have complied to these terms
- Ukraine has not broken these terms
- Russia violates the treaty anyway
within 30 years of signing.
If Ukraine breaks the treaty or 30 years pass without incident, this question will resolve "Yes".
Mar 8, 11:10am: Use loans if you want to invest into in this market
Mar 8, 1:58pm: It will also resolve N/A if Ukraine is made to accept other significant conditions (installing a puppet leader, giving up territory outside of the Donbas). But minor conditions (respecting minority rights for Russian speakers) don't trigger a N/A, Unsure about which conditions count as major? feel free to comment!
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by October 15, 2025?
1% chance
Will the Russia Ukraine conflict reach a conclusion by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will Ukraine reach a peace treaty with Russia before the end of 2025?
8% chance
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
9% chance
When will a Ukraine–Russia peace deal be announced?
Will Ukraine and Russia have a cease-fire or peace before 2026?
5% chance
Will Russia/Ukraine break their ceasefire before the end of 2025?
9% chance
Will Ukraine repeal the presidential decree that forbids negotiations with Vladimir Putin by the end of 2025?
27% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will Russia pay at least $1bn in reparations to Ukraine by Jan 1, 2026?
8% chance