If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years? | Manifold

If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?

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Currently the Peace deal Russia is offering is as follows - Ukraine recognises Crimea as Russian territory - Ukraine recognises the independence of the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk - Ukraine does not join the EU or NATO - Ukraine changes its constitiution to enshrine neutrality. This question resolves N/A if the war in Ukraine ends or reaches longterm ceasefire, but under different conditions than outlined above. Or if the year ends without ceasefire This question resolves "NO" If - Ukraine complies to these terms - Russia at any moment agrees that they have complied to these terms - Ukraine has not broken these terms - Russia violates the treaty anyway within 30 years of signing. If Ukraine breaks the treaty or 30 years pass without incident, this question will resolve "Yes". Mar 8, 11:10am: Use loans if you want to invest into in this market Mar 8, 1:58pm: It will also resolve N/A if Ukraine is made to accept other significant conditions (installing a puppet leader, giving up territory outside of the Donbas). But minor conditions (respecting minority rights for Russian speakers) don't trigger a N/A, Unsure about which conditions count as major? feel free to comment!

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Ukraine-Russia war

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sold Ṁ30 NO

which peace deal is this market talking about ?

only ceasefire, for Putin, any peace deal is considered a tactical truth. There is only one situation Russia will not invade its neighbors in future 30 years: Russia secondly collapses and remains struggling in a civil war

with loans it now becomes sort of viable to bet on such markets

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