I will place a decently sized NO limit order at 50% on this market. If no more than 10 people (excluding me) bet NO, the market resolves YES, and you get the mana from my limit order by betting YES against it. If more than 10 distinct people aside from me bet NO, the market resolves NO. The liquidity of the market is low, so you get very little personally from betting NO.
"Betting NO" counts the number of distinct people who have (except for me of course, putting the initial limit order) placed a NO trade or filled, even partially, a NO limit order, at any time. Selling a YES share does not count as betting NO. This will be resolved based on the trade log history.
As an example, if 11 distinct people bet NO, the market would resolve NO.
Resolves YES on Halloween if the defection threshold is not reached by then.
I will not bet on this market aside from that, and will not use any kind of alt account or rigging.
Update 2025-10-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Automatic bot trading does not count toward the count of distinct people who bet NO.
1,000People are also trading
Minor request for clarification:
The title here suggests that the market runs through Halloween ('...by end of Halloween'). But the current market closing time shows as 11:17AM on Oct 31 for me.
Now, I am in the Pacific time zone in the US, and maybe the market maker is far enough east the Halloween really is over (for them) by that point in time, but ... is the current market closing time correct and exact?
Clarification: bot trading doesn't count as a No bet
@121 It is done. We'll see how it shapes up. I had been planning to wait until tomorrow to decide how to bet, but with offers like these I'm easy :-)
@JackP what if I offer @spiderduckpig 100 mana to change the resolution criteria to require 100 NO traders?