Experimental, I hope this works out!
Every option is a threshold, not a bucket, so some of them overlap. When this market reaches 20 traders, I will calculate "(time for 20 traders) divided by (time for first 10 traders)". All options that apply to the result will resolve YES, all others will resolve NO.
Question created: 18 Oct 2025, 11:56:04 UTC
Keeping track of traders:
4fa
Henry38hw
wingspan
TonyBaloney
BastiaanVorster
MaxE
No guarantee for the AI claims below:
Update 2025-10-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market has multiple answer options where "At least 2" includes "at least 3" and all higher values. The market will resolve to either "below 2" or "at least 2" (not both).
1,000People are also trading
@TonyBaloney "At least 2" includes "at least 3" and the market will resolve either "below 2" or "at least 2". I can compensate you for your losses in case that was misleading.
@4fa No worries. That makes sense and I should have read it better. It might be clearer in the rules because it’s an unusual structure.
Expected value seems to be off – that's what I get for mixing "below" and "above" thresholds…
Edit: Huh, now it looks okay.
Edit: Seems to be off right after trading and okay right after reloading the page.