Experimental, I hope this works out!
Every option is a threshold, not a bucket, so some of them overlap. When this market reaches 20 traders, I will calculate "(time from market creation to reach 20 traders) divided by (time from market creation to reach 10 traders)". All options that apply to the result will resolve YES, all others will resolve NO.
Question created: 18 Oct 2025, 11:56:04 UTC
Seventh trader reached: 12 Dec 2025, 16:36:14 UTC
That means the cut-off times and dates are as follows:
5 Feb 2026, 21:16:24 UTC
2 Apr 2026, 01:56:34 UTC
27 Mai 2026, 06:36:44 UTC
21 Jul 2026, 11:16:54 UTC
Keeping track of traders:
4fa
Henry38hw
wingspan
TonyBaloney
BastiaanVorster
MaxE
Gabu
winged_one
notbayesian
SimonWestlake
JeromeHPowell
Bayesian
realDonaldTrump
draaglom
No guarantee for the AI claims below:
Update 2025-10-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market has multiple answer options where "At least 2" includes "at least 3" and all higher values. The market will resolve to either "below 2" or "at least 2" (not both).
Update 2025-10-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The calculation will be: (time from market creation to reach 20 traders) divided by (time from market creation to reach 10 traders)
Both time measurements start from market creation, not from when 10 traders was reached.
Update 2025-12-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will extend the close date if necessary to allow the market to reach 20 traders for proper resolution.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ56 | |
| 2 | Ṁ23 | |
| 3 | Ṁ13 | |
| 4 | Ṁ8 | |
| 5 | Ṁ7 |
People are also trading
That's 10!
Will you extend the close date if necessary?
@Gabu I will calculate "(time from market creation to reach 20 traders) divided by (time from market creation to reach 10 traders)" and resolve to that number.
@Gabu Yeah, the expected value is off right after betting, unfortunately. Reloading the page sometimes helps.
@TonyBaloney "At least 2" includes "at least 3" and the market will resolve either "below 2" or "at least 2". I can compensate you for your losses in case that was misleading.
@4fa No worries. That makes sense and I should have read it better. It might be clearer in the rules because it’s an unusual structure.
Expected value seems to be off – that's what I get for mixing "below" and "above" thresholds…
Edit: Huh, now it looks okay.
Edit: Seems to be off right after trading and okay right after reloading the page.