Will SBF live till the end of the year?
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Ṁ17kresolved Jan 1
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It's come to light that bad things went on with SBF/FTX and they stole a lot of traders money. What are the odds he survives till the end of the year?
Will resolve negatively if there's a verified report that he is dead, positively otherwise.
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https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-caroline-ellison-live-till-the
I just copied this for Caroline Ellison.
@Conflux I think you misinterpreted the question -- this is the odds he lives, not the odds he dies. I think the odds he dies are probably between 10 and 20 percent
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