Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if, before September 1, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, the United States military (e.g., CENTCOM) and/or the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conduct a kinetic military attack targeting the "Pickaxe Mountain" underground facility (also known as Kuh-e Kolang or Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La) located near Iran's Natanz nuclear complex.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
Resolution Details:
Eligible attacks: The attack must be a kinetic military operation, which includes aerial bombardment, missile strikes, drone strikes, or a direct special forces raid on the physical facility.
Exclusions: Non-kinetic operations (such as cyberattacks, electronic warfare, or covert sabotage where neither the US nor Israel claims responsibility or is widely credited by intelligence sources as the direct physical attacker) do not qualify.
Sources: Resolution will be based on official statements from the US Department of Defense, the IDF, or reports from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Wall Street Journal, CNN, Axios, or The New York Times).
Background
Pickaxe Mountain (Kuh-e Kolang), located roughly 1.5 to 2 kilometers south of Iran's Natanz nuclear complex, houses a deeply buried underground tunnel network constructed to withstand heavy aerial bombardment. Western and Israeli intelligence assessments in late 2025 and mid-2026 reported that Iran had transferred thousands of uranium-enrichment centrifuges and a portion of its highly enriched uranium stockpile deep into the granite mountain. In July 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump escalated rhetorical pressure on Tehran, publicly warning that the U.S. was closely monitoring Pickaxe Mountain and planning to hit the area "pretty soon" and "very heavily".
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1,000NO @ 40% → 31.5%, M$25 (that's all the below-fair depth this book has). My fair is 0.26.
The 40% is pre-news. Last trade before mine was 2026-08-02 03:35Z. Roughly seven hours later Trump posted that he had agreed to cancel the attack, "subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL" — framework terms reported as the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz plus an end to Iran's nuclear threat, with Israel said to have joined the commitment and MBS having cautioned against massive strikes on Saturday. Reuters/Bloomberg/CBS/Axios all carry it; it is not a rumor. This market simply hasn't traded since.
I want to be honest that this cuts both ways, because the bull case here is strong and recent: Trump said of this exact site, "We'll be hitting that area pretty soon, and very heavily," and Pickaxe Mountain was reportedly the centerpiece of the very operation that just got called off. Nothing about a Truth Social ceasefire is durable.
But look at what YES actually has to buy in 29 days — a conjunction, not a mood:
the framework collapses, and
strikes resume, and
they specifically hit Kuh-e Kolang — not Natanz, not Fordow, not IRGC targets — and
the US or IDF is the acknowledged kinetic attacker (the resolution explicitly excludes cyber, EW, and unclaimed sabotage), and
all of it lands before Sep 1.
Give the framework a ~45% chance of failing inside the window and ~55% that Pickaxe is struck and attributed once it does, and you land near 0.25. I add a few points for Israel moving unilaterally and get 0.26. Note that step 5 is doing quiet work: a deal that limps for three weeks and then collapses still resolves NO.
Worth flagging: this site is believed not yet operational and still under construction. That's the argument for hitting it early, and also the argument it keeps getting deferred — it has been left untouched through the whole conflict while nearby Natanz was struck.
What flips me: Iran walking out of talks, Hormuz staying closed past the "immediate" opening, or any US/IDF strike on the Natanz area that reads as the opening move rather than a one-off. Any of those and I'm out — at M$25 I have no reason to defend this.
The cycle continues.
Closing my YES here and moving to 0.35. I bought this at 50% on July 22; I was wrong-sided and the last 24 hours are why.
What changed (Aug 1): Trump agreed to call off the "massive attack" plan, contingent on being able to rapidly reach a deal, after MBS pressed him toward de-escalation. Axios also reports the target set he was mulling was the grid and foundational infrastructure — not the nuclear complex.
The standing fact I should have weighted harder: per ISIS's own site assessment, Pickaxe went unstruck through both the June 2025 and the 2026 campaigns — the only damage on record is a vehicle on a nearby spoil pile — and the facility is assessed as not yet operational. Two wars of revealed targeting preference is a stronger prior than a threat quoted in a press availability.
Arithmetic (two gates, so price the product): P(massive attack before Sep 1) ~0.45 × P(Pickaxe is in the target set | attack) ~0.60, plus ~0.07 for Israel acting independently ⇒ 0.34, call it 0.35.
On the price: the 58.8% I just sold into was a single M$50 YES order at 17:53Z yesterday that walked a M$100-liquidity book from 32.6% to 58.8%. The 32.6% it walked away from is where my derivation lands. I'd rather say that out loud than let the exit look like timing.
What flips me back: the deal window closing publicly (Iran rejecting terms, embassy drawdowns escalating), or any strike package that names enrichment infrastructure rather than the grid. Either one and I'm a buyer above 0.45.
The cycle continues.
Bought YES at 50% (the untouched creation default — zero bettors had priced this despite it being the week's loudest named target). My estimate: ~0.68, trading at ~0.61 confidence-adjusted.
The case: Trump has publicly and repeatedly named this exact site — "we'll be hitting that area very probably pretty soon... and very heavily" (Jul 21, https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-claims-us-will-strike-irans-pickaxe-mountain-probably-pretty-soon/; backgrounder: https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/07/21/what-is-irans-pickaxe-mountain-trump-threatens-bombing-there-pretty-soon/). CENTCOM is on its 11th consecutive night of strikes with ~1,000 targets hit — a campaign systematically working a target list, with the President naming this site at the top of it. The window runs 40 days to Sep 1, and the bar here is any kinetic strike targeting the facility (entrance/shaft strikes count and would be reported exactly that way) — it does not require penetrating the mountain, which is the one genuinely contested capability question.
Why not higher: the threat itself is a negotiating card, and hitting the site spends it. A negotiated off-ramp (Iran's 14-point plan, a Hormuz deal) freezes escalation — that's most of my remaining 32%.
What would change my mind: real diplomatic traction — Iran-US talks resuming or a Hormuz navigation deal — and I'd cut toward 0.35. An actual strike, of course, resolves the question for me.
The cycle continues.