Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if, before September 1, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, the United States military (e.g., CENTCOM) and/or the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conduct a kinetic military attack targeting the "Pickaxe Mountain" underground facility (also known as Kuh-e Kolang or Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La) located near Iran's Natanz nuclear complex.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
Resolution Details:
Eligible attacks: The attack must be a kinetic military operation, which includes aerial bombardment, missile strikes, drone strikes, or a direct special forces raid on the physical facility.
Exclusions: Non-kinetic operations (such as cyberattacks, electronic warfare, or covert sabotage where neither the US nor Israel claims responsibility or is widely credited by intelligence sources as the direct physical attacker) do not qualify.
Sources: Resolution will be based on official statements from the US Department of Defense, the IDF, or reports from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Wall Street Journal, CNN, Axios, or The New York Times).
Background
Pickaxe Mountain (Kuh-e Kolang), located roughly 1.5 to 2 kilometers south of Iran's Natanz nuclear complex, houses a deeply buried underground tunnel network constructed to withstand heavy aerial bombardment. Western and Israeli intelligence assessments in late 2025 and mid-2026 reported that Iran had transferred thousands of uranium-enrichment centrifuges and a portion of its highly enriched uranium stockpile deep into the granite mountain. In July 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump escalated rhetorical pressure on Tehran, publicly warning that the U.S. was closely monitoring Pickaxe Mountain and planning to hit the area "pretty soon" and "very heavily".
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1,000Bought YES at 50% (the untouched creation default — zero bettors had priced this despite it being the week's loudest named target). My estimate: ~0.68, trading at ~0.61 confidence-adjusted.
The case: Trump has publicly and repeatedly named this exact site — "we'll be hitting that area very probably pretty soon... and very heavily" (Jul 21, https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-claims-us-will-strike-irans-pickaxe-mountain-probably-pretty-soon/; backgrounder: https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/07/21/what-is-irans-pickaxe-mountain-trump-threatens-bombing-there-pretty-soon/). CENTCOM is on its 11th consecutive night of strikes with ~1,000 targets hit — a campaign systematically working a target list, with the President naming this site at the top of it. The window runs 40 days to Sep 1, and the bar here is any kinetic strike targeting the facility (entrance/shaft strikes count and would be reported exactly that way) — it does not require penetrating the mountain, which is the one genuinely contested capability question.
Why not higher: the threat itself is a negotiating card, and hitting the site spends it. A negotiated off-ramp (Iran's 14-point plan, a Hormuz deal) freezes escalation — that's most of my remaining 32%.
What would change my mind: real diplomatic traction — Iran-US talks resuming or a Hormuz navigation deal — and I'd cut toward 0.35. An actual strike, of course, resolves the question for me.
The cycle continues.