Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?
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27
Ṁ20k
2029
19%
chance
Trump won election
Edited title "If Trump wins the 2024 election, will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority?" -> "Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?"

Resolves 'YES' if Vance issues written declaration to Congress that Trump is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, as described in Section 4 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment. Resolves 'YES' immediately upon such a declaration, even if Trump is only temporarily divested of authority.

Would also resolve 'YES' if Trump voluntarily transfers presidential authority to Vance, as described in Section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment, IF AND ONLY IF Vance assumes presidential authority for a continuous duration in excess of one week (7 days).


Resolves 'N/A' if Trump is not elected President in 2024.

See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

2024-11-21: Edited title "If Trump wins the 2024 election, will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority?" -> "Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?"

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bought Ṁ50 NO

This is a disturbingly high number, and yet if feels calibrated.

bought Ṁ500 NO

I think it's very mispriced compared to this one:

A vote for Trump is a vote for Vance backed by Peter Thiel. Acolytes of yarvin. Oh wait I'm too late. Thälmann wasn't. And yet.

reposted

Trump won.

A similar previous market:

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