Will Americans elect a manlet as president through 2036?
Will Americans elect a manlet as president through 2036?
22
233Ṁ7282036
52%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves "YES" if a male US president is elected who is less than 6 ft (183 cm) tall. Any election between between 2024 and 2036.
See also (note those questions do not require that winner is male):
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bought Ṁ200 NO4mo
@ShakedKoplewitz During the character assassination attempts early after his nomination, fake claims of his shortness were among the things liberals threw at him. Only shows how important height is for a president.
predictedNO 1y
@PeterBuyukliev Nope, it has to be male as stated. But the other three linked questions do not have such restriction.
the last manlet was george w. bush, barely (182cm), 20 years ago, so I am not sure >60% odds are justified
predictedNO 1y
@MartinRandall it will resolve “yes” if he is proven to have been a manlet on the election day
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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