Will someone I've met be elected President in either 2028 or 2032?
Standard
44
Ṁ1907
2033
57%
chance

I've met a good number of people, some more often than others, working on campaigns across several states. What are the odds I have met a future US President?

Must be someone who has attended a private event with where I was present (virtual events count if they were there live and conversing with people), talked to me directly on the phone, or had a direct conversation with me at a public event.

I will edit in more people when I meet them, I intend to keep working on campaigns until at least the end of 2026 and possible through 2028.

I'm currently working in Pennsylvania for the next few months and I'll be working on a campaign in Indiana for the rest of the year. I only work for Democratic campaigns

Some people I have met, under this definition:

Vice President Kamala Harris

Governor Josh Shapiro

Governor Steve Bullock

Senator John Fetterman

Senator Raphael Warnock

Senator Chuck Schumer

Lt. Governor Austin Davis

Congressman Brian Higgins

Congressman Patrick Murphy

Executive Mark Poloncarz

Mayor John Street

Mayor Michael Nutter

Mayor Paul Dyster

Mayor Michelle Roman

Mayor Austin Tylec

Controller Rebecca Rhynhart

State Senator Nikil Saval

State Senator Sharif Street

State Senator Steve Santasiero

State Representative Elizabeth Fiedler

State Representative Joe Hohenstein

State Representative Tim Brennan

State Representative Malcom Kenyatta

State Assemblyman Tim Kennedy

Councilmember Allen Domb
Councilmember Rue Landau

Commissioner Bob Harvie

Commissioner Diane Marseglia

Candidate Heidi Beidinger

Candidate Ashley Ehasz

Various other State Senators and State Representatives/Assemblymen from Pennsylvania and New York

Various city council members from across Pennsylvania and New York

Various candidates for political office

I will respond to all comments asking if I've met someone or if I think it is probable that I will in the next few years.

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Surprised there isn't more volatility here now!

bought Ṁ250 YES

oh wait election in 2024 doesn't count, right? so if Kamala isn't re-elected she wouldn't count for this market

Correct. I'm not gonna count the 2024 winner, but if one of these people (like Kamala) wins re-election in 2028 that would count towards a YES resolution.

Update: Added several people of note. Philly city council people as well as some House/Assembly people from PA and NY, some candidates I've worked with too.

What a silly vague question

@ChrisMillsc5f7 Silly yes, but the parameters are defined explicitly in the description and I will give frequent updates as needed.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@ZacharyParker As long as you update! With such a long list already I expect over time you should meet the next in line for potus even if they are not on today’s list

@SusanneinFrance Yes, I have a personal goal (if its manageable finance and stress wise) of working a top level position on a 2028 Presidential campaign so I think my odds will go up over time. I plan on frequent updates whenever I have a major meet or decent number of small ones.

@ZacharyParker Excellent- by working towards this goal and being open to possibilities you enhance your chances ❤️

What do you think is the chance that you will meet Gavin Newsom? Gretchen Whitmer? Pete Buttigieg?

@Conflux My odds of meeting Pete are pretty good. A candidate I'll be working with this year is a personal friend and I've worked with many members of his 2020 campaign. I will try to meet Gretch when I'm near her by attending an event. No idea for Gavin but if the opportunity presents itself I will.

Good possibility I apply to with on all three campaigns on 2028 if they run.

@ZacharyParker I went to a Pete rally in 2019, I remember being really impressed.

@Conflux He's incredibly talented in front of a crowd and his team had some absolute rock stars making things run well. Pete for America alums are usually really high up on statewide campaigns.