Which people will be elected U.S. president before 2033? | Manifold

Which people will be elected U.S. president before 2033?

🇺🇸 US Politics 🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election ️ Politics Future US Presidents

Basic

77

Ṁ8.2k

2033

1D

1W

1M

ALL

56%

Kamala Harris

45%

Donald Trump

15%

Nikki Haley

10%

Gretchen Whitmer

9%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

7%

Gavin Newsom

6%

Josh Shapiro

4%

Raphael Warnock

3%

Ron DeSantis

3%

Joe Biden

2%

John Fetterman

1.3%

Unlinked free response. Resolves to all people who are elected president before 2033. Becoming president by other means does not count.

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By "elected president", would that include someone who acceded to the presidency because their predecessor died in office?

@PaintspotInfez no

Why does Biden have a probability so much higher here than in the 2024 election markets? Do people seriously think he's going to lose, run again, and win?

@PlasmaBallin If that scenario occurs, then it worked for Trump, right?

@AndrewHartman Yes, but I think it's much less likely that Biden will pull it off. Trump is a special case in that the majority of the Republican Party is completely devoted to him (and many are more loyal to him than the party itself), and in that he's convinced most of the party that he didn't really lose in 2020, so he doesn't get treated like a failed nominee.

@PlasmaBallin If they remove him from enough state ballots they'll be convinced he didn't lose this one either.

Does this include the 2032 election, with inauguration in 2033?

arb:

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