This market predicts whether the U.S. federal government will approve and distribute broad-based economic stimulus checks to the general population during the 2026 calendar year. These payments should be similar to those distributed during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021, where most citizens and legal residents received direct payments, primarily subject to income limits.

The following will not be considered as stimulus for this market:

• Regular Social Security payments

• Existing tax credits

• Assistance programs targeted at limited groups (such as veterans or farmers)

• Localized disaster relief measures

Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve as YES if before January 1st, 2027:

1. Federal legislation is passed authorizing direct cash payments to the majority of U.S. citizens and/or legal residents.

2. The payments are at least $600 per eligible adult.

3. Eligibility includes all U.S. citizens and qualifying residents aged 18 and above.

4. Eligibility for the payments is not restricted to specific groups (such as retirees or parents) and applies to the general population, although there may be income limits.

5. The federal government begins distributing these payments or officially announces a start date for distribution in 2026.

It will resolve as NO if these criteria are not met by the deadline.

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