Will 10 people comment saying they spent money on AI music before 2026?
19
184
แน€390
2026
87%
chance

Including myself as one of the potential 10, though I won't be betting in this market.

Resolution criteria:

This market resolves YES if before 2026, there are at least 10 people posting comments in this market reporting having bought access to an AI generated music service. It doesn't matter when they bought it, or whether they are still using it, or if they are still subscribed.

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Certainly becomes better: https://app.suno.ai

Is this question about buying access to AI-music-generation tools, or about buying access to tracks generated therewith, or both?

@Tulip If the goal and end result is listening to AI generated music, then it counts. So probably both. I'd probably accept a musician who bought a DAW plugin, so long as they were motivated to listen to their own music and were not e.g. cynically capitalizing on AI generated music trends or some such thing.

I spent money on music AI in late 2021 and early 2022. In 2023, I just used some free tools, and most recently, suno dot ai. Do I qualify?

@firstuserhere yes, you qualify.

@firstuserhere well, I must be using sun dot ai wrong. I'm starting my prompt with "No lyrics. No vocals." and it still gives me vocals.

What if people lie? ๐Ÿ˜›

@GraceKind Unfortunately, I don't see a better way out of this than just having betters take into account that some comments might be lies. My hope is that this will only be a serious problem if people are using alts.

(ignore)

(ignore)

@GraceKind I thought of a funny way for dealing with liars: anyone who participates has to create an "Am I an alt account?" market for themselves, and the prob of that market is used to judge if they're an alt or not. This incentivizes detective work and solves the problem recursively.

A simpler option could be to only accept people posting under their own name. But I'm more fond of the idea I shared above.

predicts YES

Does it count if the music service also provides access to music that is not AI-generated? For example, should Spotify subscribers comment 'yes' if Spotify were to introduce a feature that could generate music based on other music in their catalogue, but Spotify's main business was still selling access to human-made music?

@J89502 If Spotify released a special subscription add-on for AI music, then that would be 'yes' to those who bought it over and above their normal subscription. But if Spotify added such a feature for their paying users who already were subscribed, it wouldn't.

However, someone who bought the normal Spotify plan (in this scenario) for the purpose of listening to AI music could answer 'yes'.

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