Will an object in the Solar System other than Earth be circumnavigated by 2075?
Will an object in the Solar System other than Earth be circumnavigated by 2075?
22
1kṀ1080
2075
75%
chance

This question will resolve to Yes if either a craft or a person accomplishes what could fairly be called a circumnavigation of another object in the Solar System before January 1st 2075. For example, if a person were to land on an asteroid and walk completely around it, that would resolve to Yes. If a rover were to do the same thing, that would also be Yes. If a balloon/plane/helicopter were to float or fly completely around a planet or moon with an atmosphere, that would also be Yes. Merely orbiting an object would not count. Ambiguous cases like a person walking around a small protuberance on an asteroid instead of the main body would also resolve to No.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
1y

NASA planned to circumnavigate Titan with a balloon, see Titan Saturn System Mission. This makes Titan a prime solar system body candidate for this market.

@severa For avoidance of doubt, can you clarify that above NASA Titan mission would resolve this market YES?

1y

@SanghyeonSeo Assuming it circumnavigated Titan, that would certainly resolve to Yes.

What's the minimum size for an asteroid to be circumnavigable for the purpose of this market? Like if someone flies out to a rock the size of a basketball that's orbiting the Sun on its own and touches it with their boot on four sides, does that count?

1y

@sesquipedalianThaumaturge A basketball-sized object would be too small. I'm not going to give an exact minimum size, because there might be clever ways of circumnavigating very small objects. Like, crawling around an asteroid the size of a large boulder would count, if you managed to keep from flying off.

@severa Would a very small rover or other robot which crawls around an asteroid smaller than a human be such a clever way?

1y

@sesquipedalianThaumaturge That would be a clever enough technical feat that I'd allow it, yes.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy