Which prediction market/forecasting site do you use the most (besides Manifold)?

Which prediction/forecasting site do you use the most besides Manifold (if you use one)?

My goal for this poll is to get a clearer picture of the overlap between users of various sites (both forecasting and betting markets).

By “use,” I mean total activity including browsing, betting, market creation etc.

@saulmunn has a great website mapping out the current landscape of prediction markets if you’re curious about this stuff

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I’ve been getting into good ol’ Good Judgment Open lately. It’s much slower paced than Manifold and they have fewer question ofc, but I think the questions they do have are really nice.

None at the moment. Curious to learn about alternatives and their value props. Any sites or projects to aggregate similar markets across sites?

@SimranRahman metaforecast is great! metaforecast.org

@saulmunn also electionbettingodds.com for the election

@saulmunn I second electionbettingodds

This poll would probably change based on whether the US is in an election year. You can't bet on politics on Kalshi.

nice, i like this!

i think it might be helpful to disambiguate "use" — some possible meanings of "use":

  • check (e.g. to check the news)

  • forecast "seriously" (e.g. superforecasters predicting nuclear catastrophe

  • forecast "playfull" (e.g. betting purely for fun, to win leagues, to gamble, etc)

also, thanks for tagging my prediction market map! :D

@saulmunn also might be helpful to disambiguate "the most" — some possible meanings of "most":

  • the most time spent on the app/website

  • the most effort spent on the app/website

  • the most likely that i'd recommend

  • most frequently that i check it

  • etc

these have minor differences, but sometimes might be useful. i'm less confident about the usefulness of this disambiguation than i am about disambiguating "use."

@saulmunn might also be cool to get a sense of extent — e.g. if my splitup is .2/.2/.2/.4 (polymarket/metaculus/predictit/kalshi), that's very different from .8/.05/.05/.1.

@saulmunn Great suggestions, will update soon

Fatebook and quantifiedintuitions.


Other: Miscellaneous Twitter polls.

Can you add an option for None? Or should I just pick Other?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I didn’t enable adding options :( my bad. IMO if you don’t use any other site I would just not vote in the poll

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