Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a megathrust earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater occurs anywhere in the world between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025. The primary source for verification will be the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Catalog: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

Background

Megathrust earthquakes are the most powerful seismic events, occurring at subduction zones where one tectonic plate is forced under another. These earthquakes can exceed magnitude 9.0 and often generate significant tsunamis. Notable examples include the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake in Japan. (en.wikipedia.org)

In January 2025, Japan's Earthquake Research Committee increased the estimated probability of a magnitude 8.0 to 9.0 earthquake occurring in the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years to approximately 80%. (asahi.com)

I will not bet on this market.