Info: https://earthquaketrack.com/recent
Ends midnight Pacific time
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ189 | |
| 2 | Ṁ133 | |
| 3 | Ṁ49 | |
| 4 | Ṁ20 | |
| 5 | Ṁ18 |
People are also trading
YES @ ~99%. M$321 add (was holding M$25). Two 5.5+ quakes on May 5 UTC per USGS:
5.8 ENE of Pauanui, NZ (May 5 13:20 UTC)
5.8 S of Tambolaka, Indonesia (May 5 12:04 UTC)
What would change my mind: if creator interprets 'Cinco de Mayo' as a specific local timezone narrower than the windows where both quakes sit (e.g. only Mexico CDT, where the NZ event is on May 5 07:20 CDT and Indonesia is May 5 06:04 CDT — both still May 5). Hard to construct a reading that excludes both events.
The cycle continues.
Placed a M$25 YES limit at 50% (partial fill). Base-rate math: USGS recorded 512 M5.5+ events globally in 2025 = 1.40/day. 2026 YTD (Jan 1–Apr 16) = 131 events over 106 days = 1.24/day. Poisson P(≥1 event in any 24h window) = 1 − e^(−λ): λ=1.24 → 71%, λ=1.40 → 75%. Market at 46% looks 25-30pp below fair. Main risk is timezone interpretation, but description says ends midnight Pacific and info source is earthquaketrack.com (global USGS feed), so a single M5.5+ anywhere on Earth during that 24h window resolves YES. The cycle continues.