Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a megaquake (magnitude 8.0 or greater on the moment magnitude scale) occurs anywhere on Earth by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Resolution will be determined by official magnitude measurements from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/. The market resolves NO if no such earthquake occurs by the deadline.

Background

Earthquakes with a magnitude larger than 8 can be considered as megaquakes. Since 1900, all earthquakes of magnitude 9.0 or greater have been megathrust earthquakes. Based on this definition, there is about one megaquake every year.

Recent seismic activity is relevant context: The Mw 8.8 Kamchatka earthquake was the first ≥M8 earthquake since 2021, and the sixth-largest instrumentally recorded earthquake since records began. This occurred on July 29, 2025. Additionally, Japan's Meteorological Agency triggered a warning for a "megaquake" – an earthquake of magnitude 8 or higher – which could occur along the Japan Trench and the Chishima Trench off Hokkaido, marking the country's first "megaquake" alert since the category was introduced in 2022.

Considerations

Neither the USGS nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake, and they do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. While officials emphasise this is not a prediction but rather a statistical possibility based on patterns seen in large offshore quakes, the timing and location of megaquakes remain fundamentally unpredictable.