Starting in 24 hours (October 23, 2025 at 3PM ET), this market will resolve Yes if it hits 50%.
IGNORE AI UPDATES THEY ARE WRONG!!1!
Update 2025-10-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the 24-hour grace period starts at 4:58 PM EST on October 23, 2025 (the time when they made their clarifying comment). The market description's reference to "3PM EST" appears to have been incorrect.
Update 2025-10-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve Yes if it crosses 50% (not just hits/touches 50%).
Update 2025-10-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve Yes if the probability crosses 50% in either direction (e.g., going from 51% to 49% counts, as does going from 49% to 51%).
Update 2025-10-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed they are currently in EDT (Eastern Daylight Time), not EST. The 24-hour grace period starts at 4:58 PM EDT on October 23, 2025.
Update 2025-10-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 24-hour grace period has ended. The market will now be resolved based on whether it crossed 50% during the grace period (which started at 4:58 PM EDT on October 23, 2025).
1,000π Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ18,454 | |
| 2 | αΉ1,757 | |
| 3 | αΉ1,170 | |
| 4 | αΉ221 | |
| 5 | αΉ106 |
People are also trading
@Simon74fe @121 spammed thousands of hundreds of trades until my bot broke. I'm pretty sure he read this comment: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/this-market-hits-70-after-1minute-g-Cn56czpZRQ#pggwwcnjr1a. My bot was cancelling orders, then buying no, giving a tiny time window where you could buy it down to 50% (I had the only 51% YES order, since I had taken every one else's). However, my bot also had a functionality that if for whatever reason the market reaches 50%, it will immediately buy the market up to 99%. @121's bot did not have this feature. So I got all the profit from buying it up to 99%, resulting in me having a profit of -18,692 instead of -27000.
@traders does anyone mind if I change the resolution date to Nov 1? It doesn't seem like halving the markets lifespan would impact the experience to me but I won't if someone has objections.
@CollinMatthews I'm currently in EST but the market description also says EST. It is 4:58 PM for me right now, if that helps
@MaxE Wouldn't it have been 3:58 EST when you sent that? EST should be UTC-5, I think you're probably in EDT?
@CollinMatthews You are right. I always get standard and daylight savings mixed up. The intended time was ET