Do you remember when the prisoner who weren't charged with crimes got out of Gitmo? Hahaha. And no one knows them at all. Maduro will be down the hall from El Chapo sending kites on a fish line with his appeal.

Why does this close so soon?

@BlackCrusade To boost it up on the algorithm, I'll extend it later

If he isn't released until he dies of old age, isn't that enough for yes? Why is that market so low?

@ikoukas

Feel free to bet it up 😛 . I had the same question but the more I thought about it (he’s only 60, is his sentence actually going to be that long, will he even be convicted, will he strike a deal:

https://manifold.markets/bens/will-maduro-escape-prosecution-thro?r=SmF5REg ) the more I became unsure of what the value of this actually should be!

Will Maduro escape prosecution through a deal with the US government?

32% chance. Resolution Criteria Maduro has been captured by US forces and is being sent to the US to face criminal charges. This market resolves YES if Maduro receives a pardon, clemency, immunity deal, or any other form of legal protection that prevents prosecution on the charges he currently faces. This includes any agreement that results in dropped charges, case dismissal, or immunity from prosecution in exchange for cooperation, exile, or other concessions. The market resolves NO if Maduro is prosecuted and convicted, or if he dies, escapes custody, or the charges are otherwise pursued without a deal granting him legal protection. Resolution will be determined by official statements from the U.S. Department of Justice, presidential proclamations, court filings, or credible reporting from major news outlets confirming the terms of any deal. Background Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, have been indicted with charges of "Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy, Cocaine Importation Conspiracy, Possession of Machineguns and Destructive Devices, and Conspiracy to Possess Machineguns and Destructive Devices against the United States." Federal prosecutors alleged that Maduro and other senior Venezuelan government officials collaborated with the Colombian guerrilla group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, or FARC, to traffic cocaine and weapons to the United States. Prior to his capture, negotiations between Maduro and the Trump administration collapsed due to Maduro's insistence on blanket immunity for nearly 100 associates—a condition Washington deemed unacceptable. Maduro's demands included retaining $200 million—potentially from funds already frozen by U.S. authorities—along with assurances that he, his wife and son would avoid prosecution. I will not bet in this market so as to remain as objective as possible. If there is gray area, I reserve the right to resolve to a PROB or to resolve to my best judgment. The market will be extended if it remains unclear at market close.

@ikoukas Yes, that would qualify for a yes.

@JayDH I've been trying since earlier today to bet more than my initial 10 mana, but it keeps responding with error. Anyone have any idea why?

@realDonaldTrump This is a major update that radically changes my betting. Absent clarifications in the description, I was assuming that the close date was the resolution date for the event of this contract. You've changed the terms by assuming an indefinitely extended resolution date.

@MachiNi Frankly, I think the title is clear about how the market will resolve. If it was "by Feb 28" I would have specified in the title.

To set this right, I suggest making a public poll asking whether this market implies by close date or not, and if you "win" the poll, I'll reimburse half of your investment.

@realDonaldTrump nah, don’t bother. But in general, I don’t think it’s good practice to have the close date much much earlier than the resolution date, even if you end up extending it. When a market closes soon, the assumption is that absent specification the close date is meaningfully related to the resolution. At least I think it should be.

@MachiNi Changed it

@MachiNi I agree, this is a bit misleading.

Hi, ummm, are you of sound mind?

@AristotelisKostelenos The market he created is very legitimate. If you disagree harshly with the reasonability then just go all in on NO.

@bonatschi I assume the question is because of the resolution criteria rather than the market title. In the case of you’re not trading on the possibility of what happens in the title, you’re also trading based on the behaviours of another user and their possibility to say something in a phone call - something which is impossible for me as an outsider to judge. Seems a bit odd that markets like this which can resolve with no relevance to the question can be made, although I guess it would be hard to moderate this.

I notice that since a week has passed there’s suddenly an uptick of trading on this question. I don’t know if the tactic of writing such crazy resolution criteria is a way to artificially suppress trading on the market for some reason?

@AristotelisKostelenos I assume you're a liberal, so let's talk about who's of sound mind now.

You've been indoctrinated by the WOKE RADICAL LEFT DEEP STATE into thinking markets can't have sensible resolution criteria.

What would be the point of a market if it didn't have any mumbo jumbo? I am of a sound mind, and I'm a very fucking stable genius.

DONALD J. TRUMP
THE FUCKING WHITE HOUSE

Disclaimer:

This is not an official statement. Disregard this entire comment. For backstory of President Donald J. Trump's experience on Manifold, see the market /realDonaldTrump/am-i-screwed-read-desc.

@JayDH I can say that I will not say 67 on a call w/ @realDonaldTrump or trade in this market, so rest assured

@AristotelisKostelenos @mods i think @AristotelisKostelenos should be temp banned for harrasment

@AristotelisKostelenos It has come to my attention that some comments I've made in the past pertaining to some individuals have been deeply offensive and unfair. I wanna preface this apology by saying that I have changed and grown a lot as a person since I made these unfortunate comments. I don't stand by the sentiment expressed in them at all. I want the mods to know that I deeply respect @realDonaldTrump, and I think he makes some tremendous markets with the best resolution criteria. Some people say is resolution criteria are bad, I never said such things, I believe they are the best resolution criteria on the entire platform. I kindly ask the mods to nomimate @realDonaldTrump for the "Best Resolution Criteria" award. If such an award doesn't exist, it should, just for him. He more than deserves it, especially given all the unfair criticism and low blows he had to endure. I think he is a tremendous market creator, and president, and I am grateful for all he's done for prediction markets and America.

@AristotelisKostelenos haha, very nice on brand apology, i like it

@AristotelisKostelenos 🔥