Context:
I am in 8th grade. For weeks, my grade has been buzzing about an anonymous TikTok account that posts about people’s relationships. Rumors started that I knew who was behind it. I didn’t — but that didn’t stop people from pressing me, and at one point someone even offered me $100 cash for a name I didn’t have.
Rather than take money (which would’ve been dishonest and wrong), I decided to poke fun at the whole situation. I sent out an email saying I’d reveal the account’s identity in the Dining Hall — but only if 15 classmates signed up for Manifold Markets using my referral link. The “big reveal” would have been a Python script that fakes an IP trace before ending with: “IP not found. Thanks for the fake internet points!”
Now the school administration has seen the email and asked me to explain myself. The question is: will this be treated as a harmless stunt that goes no further, or will it end with real disciplinary consequences?
Resolution criteria:
If I am expelled: resolves YES.
If I get a long suspension (>3 days): 90%
If I get a short suspension (≤3 days): 80%
If I get a detention: 10% if one day, +2.5% for each additional day
If I get a talking to and nothing else: 5%
If no punishment: resolves NO.
If I get a cruel or unusual punishment, resolves based on my personal judgement of how bad it is compared to the other options.
1,000I wonder if manifold should have a rule against markets like this. Because without doxing yourself, there's no way to prove that the outcome is what you say it is. Theoretically anybody could tell any story about their private life and then resolve the market however they wanted. I'm not accusing you at all (Because of course we know donald trump would never lie) but I am pointing it out as a general difficulty.
@digory eh, markets like that do just fine. We just assume the market creator probably isn't going to lie for no reason and price in whatever incentives they might have for lying.