Will the HTVN 142 clinical trial to vaccinate against HIV be successful?
Basic
2
Ṁ81Jan 1
85%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will resolve to YES if the vaccine trial is found to have >= 90% efficacy in preventing new HIV transmission in participants.
Context per NIH:
HVTN 142 is taking place at six sites in the United States and four in South Africa and will enroll 95 HIV-negative participants. Participants will be randomly assigned to one of four study arms: three arms will each receive a different dose of the vaccine, and one will receive a placebo. To optimize participant safety, this study will only enroll people already living with asymptomatic CMV. Initial results are expected in late 2024, and an optional long-term sub-study will continue to follow volunteers for up to three years after their first vaccine dose.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will the VLA15 Lyme Disease vaccine "pass" its phase 3 human trial?
62% chance
Will a vaccine for HIV be a available in the US or Europe by 2030?
48% chance
Will the Phase 2 Trials of Lepodisiran be a Success?
57% chance
Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA by 2030?
71% chance
Will AOH1996 succeed in Phase I trial?
81% chance
Will Vaxart’s oral COVID vaccine candidate show at least 75% efficacy in a human challenge trial?
55% chance
Will it be confirmed that >2M doses of the R21 malaria vaccine are delivered in a single month before January 1st, 2025?
41% chance
Will an mRNA HIV vaccine pass Phase 2 trials by 2025
21% chance
Will the M72/AS01E tuberculosis vaccine candidate have an efficacy of 50% or higher in the phase 3 trial?
59% chance
Will an H5N1 mRNA vaccine be developed and enter "late stage" human trials (or wider release) by July 2025?
61% chance