2
8
Ṁ82Ṁ70
2025
85%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will resolve to YES if the vaccine trial is found to have >= 90% efficacy in preventing new HIV transmission in participants.
Context per NIH:
HVTN 142 is taking place at six sites in the United States and four in South Africa and will enroll 95 HIV-negative participants. Participants will be randomly assigned to one of four study arms: three arms will each receive a different dose of the vaccine, and one will receive a placebo. To optimize participant safety, this study will only enroll people already living with asymptomatic CMV. Initial results are expected in late 2024, and an optional long-term sub-study will continue to follow volunteers for up to three years after their first vaccine dose.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Will the VLA15 Lyme Disease vaccine "pass" its phase 3 human trial?
58% chance
Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA by 2030?
65% chance
By 2030, will any treatment be shown to increase human lifespan in a randomized controlled trial?
Will AOH1996 succeed in Phase I trial?
81% chance
By the start of 2026, will at least 100 people have been permanently cured of HIV?
32% chance
Will the pre-clinical results on the cancer drug AOH1996 be broadly confirmed by independent team(s)?
26% chance
By the start of 2026, will at least 10 people have been permanently cured of HIV?
75% chance
Will HIV/AIDS be considered a "curable" disease by the end of 2030?
27% chance
What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 48 months?
[Metaculus] Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?
75% chance