Will a Mamba-based LLM of GPT 3.5 quality or greater be open sourced in 2024?
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1kṀ1874Jan 1
73%
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Mamba is a next-generation architecture that seeks to improve on the shortcomings of transformers, mainly around context size and eliminating quadratic memory consumption during inference. https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.00752
YES resolution requires the Mamba LLM to match or beat GPT 3.5 on at least 5 popular benchmarks.
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does this count as Mamba-based? it's open and easily above GPT-3.5 quality
bought Ṁ10 NO
Looks like Gemini 1.5 used normal transformers and not Mamba, while also seeming to get around these shortcomings (1M context size). I expect this will cause interest in Mamba to wane, which decreases the chance someone will bother training and testing a Mamba LLM to GPT 3.5 level.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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